Man holds a red arrow up over wooden letter blocks which spell the word "forecast".

Creating Two Problems Out Of One: Conflating Forecasting and Performance

“Sales are underperforming. Growth is not where it needs to be.  We need to turn up the heat on the weekly forecast call!”  

This is a familiar scenario. And the forecast cycle – when everybody is acutely focused on the numbers – presents a clear opportunity for hard conversations about performance.  But a word from the wise – take care, or you risk creating two problems out of one!    

By turning up the heat in the forecast process you are increasing stress and inviting emotional responses, at the risk of robbing the forecast of clear-headed objectivity.  Experience suggests you have a high probability of raising the forecast to a level better aligned with performance expectations, but a lower chance of lifting actual performance as much.  The result: a missed forecast…on top of the performance problem, which hasn’t gone away.  Two problems instead of one.  

So the message here is that some pressure in the forecast cycle is important, but don’t over-index. And pressure alone rarely solves performance issues, so always employ performance improvement strategies in parallel.

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Creating Two Problems Out Of One: Conflating Forecasting and Performance

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